Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Aug 19 2024 00:53:31 ACUS01 KWNS 190053 SWODY1 SPC AC 190051 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ....SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds remain possible into tonight along an axis from eastern Kansas into Mississippi, then extending eastward into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. A couple severe wind/hail producing storms may persist across the northern Rockies, with a couple of storms crossing the international border into North Dakota. ....Synopsis... An upper ridge persists across the central U.S. as a mid-level trough meanders toward the Atlantic from the eastern U.S. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms (some strong to occasionally severe) continue to percolate in intensity all along the periphery of both the upper trough and ridge, from the eastern Seaboard to the northern Rockies. Moderate to strong buoyancy should persist for at least a couple of hours past sunset, promoting continued severe wind/hail potential with the stronger storms. The primary changes to the outlook were to trim severe probabilities across portions of the Mid Atlantic, Southeast, and the central Rockies, where multiple rounds of thunderstorms have diluted buoyancy. Otherwise, Category 1/Marginal risk probabilities, driven by wind/hail, were added to parts of north-central ND, where a few southward-surging supercells may cross the international border with a severe threat before nocturnal cooling and associated MLCINH help weaken the storms. ...Squitieri.. 08/19/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .