Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Aug 18 2024 19:26:28 ACUS03 KWNS 181926 SWODY3 SPC AC 181925 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind/hail are possible across the northern/central High Plains during the late afternoon to mid evening Tuesday. ....Northern/central High Plains... In the wake of extensive convective activity on D2, a remnant MCV is consistently progged to be over the Dakotas at 12Z Tuesday. This feature will probably drift east-southeast with a general thunder threat into the Mid-MO Valley. In its wake, the persistent mid-level ridge will likely become centered along the MT/Dakotas border area, emanating north from the stout anticyclone over NM. Convective signal along the surface lee trough appears sparse despite a conditionally favorable CAPE/shear parameter space for severe. Potential for very isolated late-afternoon thunderstorms remains apparent over the Black Hills, to widely scattered thunderstorms along parts of the Front Range. Given the more muted indications for peak-heating convection over the adjacent High Plains and after coordination with WFO GLD, have adjusted the eastern extent of the level 1-MRGL risk. Some severe potential should evolve in the lee of the northern Rockies in the central MT vicinity. Primary shortwave impulse embedded within the Pacific coast trough should accelerate inland on Tuesday as it progresses across WA to the northern Rockies along the international border. Attendant mid-level southwesterlies should strengthen downstream from ID into western/central MT, yielding increasing deep-layer speed shear by late afternoon into the evening. Along the western periphery of the northern High Plains buoyancy plume, a few updrafts with mid-level rotation may develop with a threat for both large hail and severe surface gusts. This warrants westward expansion of the level 1-MRGL risk. ...Grams.. 08/18/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .