Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1945
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 18 2024 18:58:57

ACUS11 KWNS 181858
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181858=20
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-182100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1945
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

Areas affected...Central/Southern Virginia and the Carolinas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 181858Z - 182100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms are likely this
afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite trends show deepening cu across much
of the region from central/southern Virginia southward into the
Carolinas. Thunderstorm development is likely to begin in these
regions over the next 1-2 hours. A few cells have developed across
western North Carolina near the higher terrain. The air mass east of
this development is characterized by MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg
with temperatures in the upper 80s-90s and dew points in the low to
mid 70s. This moist and unstable air mass will support multicell
clusters capable of downbursts. A watch will likely be needed to
cover this threat soon.

...Thornton/Hart.. 08/18/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6wFZugJ124Eg2B5yDYj5cYKL_yVFhkWuSbGOeWUb79ApiYcOqwb1drqCzGG4_KHn_e1e_vOMz=
YH1TnC4t8s3TKsVOCI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...
GSP...

LAT...LON   33378181 33688201 33978199 35348160 36008126 36708076
            37018039 37337988 37577930 37967789 38127730 37957664
            37767606 37717601 35957705 34207883 32728138 33378181=20


=3D =3D =3D
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