Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 18 2024 09:52:26

AWUS01 KWNH 180952
FFGMPD
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-181200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0895
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
551 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

Areas affected...portions of New Jersey and southern New York
state

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 180951Z - 181200Z

Summary...A conditional flash flood threat exists for portions of
the New York City metro area and adjacent portions of New Jersey
through 12Z.

Discussion...Through the night, occasional banded convective
structures have materialized near the Philadelphia Metro area.=20
These structures have been embedded in deep south-southwesterly
flow aloft (resulting in 20-30 kt storm motions), but have
oriented favorably for brief training and heavier rainfall rates
approaching 1 inch/hr at times.  Weak forcing has limited
convective coverage, although 1000 J/kg SBCAPE (focused across
southern/central NJ), 1.8+ inch PW values, and weak inhibition
were all supporting deep, efficient updrafts with occasional
heavier rain rates.

While heavier rainfall has been isolated, some concern exists that
heavier rainfall rates (around 1 inch/hr) could extend into more
populated areas of northern New Jersey and southern New York state
over the next 2-3 hours.  The airmass across that area has been
destabilizing through the night due to warm advection, although
weak/limited forcing remains a limiting factor for a more
widespread flash flood threat.  This conditional risk will likely
extend through 12Z/8am EST this morning.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9FPpWR_c_rA5PNsHqcRLIBfWT-Q8kh7g_xnwfsZGxwsl8koxdZynj_jfx2RyZMlvOEXQ=
Mjlz_9MvX0lYH8qmcsDOPp0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   41777360 41287285 40317314 39907392 40027489=20
            40587492 41407443=20

=3D =3D =3D
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