Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Aug 18 2024 07:17:21 ACUS03 KWNS 180717 SWODY3 SPC AC 180716 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ....Central and Northern Plains... A shortwave ridge over eastern parts of the northern Plains is forecast to deamplify on Tuesday, as a large-scale upper-level ridge further west, moves eastward across the High Plains. At the surface, a lee trough is forecast to deepen over the central and northern High Plains, as a moist airmass remains in place from western Nebraska into the Dakotas. Some model solutions show potential for morning convection near the moist axis, which would be associated with a perturbation moving through the flow, and a belt of stronger low-level flow. Cells within this convection could obtain an isolated severe threat, as temperatures warm during the day. By afternoon, some model solutions suggest that subsidence will overspread much of the northern Plains. While isolated storms would be possible, this would potentially cause updrafts to struggle. Any cell that could persist could have a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. The marginal severe threat could extend as far south as northeastern Colorado, where moderate instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates could be enough for a few severe gusts. ...Broyles.. 08/18/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .