Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1938
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 18 2024 01:24:47

ACUS11 KWNS 180124
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180124=20
ORZ000-WAZ000-180300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1938
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0824 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Areas affected...portions of far northern Oregon into central
Washington

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631...

Valid 180124Z - 180300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 631. Damaging gusts and hail are the main threats over the
next few hours.

DISCUSSION...A band of multicells and transient supercells continue
to progress northward in conjunction with a 700 mb impulse/500 mb
speed max, with a history of occasional 1 inch hail reports. These
storms will continue to progress into an unstable airmass,
characterized by at least 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. With 40-50 kts of
effective bulk shear overspreading this buoyancy axis, the ongoing
storms may remain organized for at least a few more hours,
accompanied by a continued strong gust/hail threat.

...Squitieri.. 08/18/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_jDwP77r6T1ajJl72aOIOSSB7ySt6irfA-HWYpAl0jvnX2kk1s94sSdvnddH2YIsOtuE-txfV=
jsRm_CiMi_5zUAzr3Q$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PDT...SEW...PQR...

LAT...LON   45892249 47142253 47592202 47602124 47252061 46732027
            46022015 45582021 45312038 45122066 45072080 45092115
            45212175 45892249=20


=3D =3D =3D
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