Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 18 2024 01:02:20

AWUS01 KWNH 180102
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-180400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0894
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
901 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Areas affected...Eastern Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 180100Z - 180400Z

Summary...A localized but very efficient MCS has materialized over
portions of eastern Virginia, which will maintain a threat of
localized very heavy rainfall rates exceeding 2"/hr through 4Z.

Discussion...Radar this evening depicts a localized MCS over
eastern Virginia containing estimated rainfall rates upwards of
2-3"/hr, with slow storm motions around 10 kts. Training of
individual cells of in the MCS led to a quick QPE/FFG exceedence
near Hanover, VA where a Flash Flood Warning was issued.

This activity is anchored along an axis of high theta-e air, with
recent objective analysis fields showing 1000 J/kg MLCAPE with
negligible CIN and 1.7-1.8" PWATs in the inflow region of the
complex. Within the uncapped airmass, an axis of weak but
appreciable moisture convergence is also noted upwind of the MCS
to force new updrafts in the complex. As new cells form, Corfidi
upshear vectors around 10 kts within a diffluent thickness region
suggest the complex will be quite slow to move. Over the next few
hours, the 18z HREF maintains a focused but notable signal
(25-35%) for rainfall rates exceeding 2"/hr through 4Z.
Accordingly, the threat of localized flash flooding will continue
through the next three hours should this complex persist.

Asherman

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_PH58iGt5cS-wZjB8LBbyLFeWlgbzJI5rroKlqlRqsdXJWQ5seKDiLEOP3sekguwthLM=
WukN_LLCCpSuucCrRO0Dnds$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38297683 38227611 37617609 37287713 37727775=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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