Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 18 2024 00:46:47

ACUS01 KWNS 180046
SWODY1
SPC AC 180045

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/JUST EAST OF
THE WASHINGTON/OREGON CASCADES...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will spread across portions of
southwest Washington this evening. Hail/wind remain possible.
Isolated damaging gusts are also expected with convection across
portions of the southern Appalachians into the Ohio Valley.

....01z Update...

Notable short-wave trough is currently ejecting north across
northern CA into western OR. Water-vapor imagery also suggests a
lead disturbance may be associated with a fairly extensive cluster
of deep convection as it advances across northern OR into southwest
WA. Surface temperatures are holding in the lower 90s across lower
elevations of southern WA east of the Cascades. Latest diagnostic
data suggests a narrow corridor of higher instability extends
along/just east of the Cascades. While convection should
spread/develop north along the higher terrain, northeasterly
low-level flow should contribute to robust updrafts capable of
generating hail/wind.

Northwesterly flow is deepening across the southern Appalachians
early this evening as the upper trough progresses steadily east. A
broken band of organized convection is propagating southeast across
northwestern SC/northern GA through an axis of instability
characterized by 1500 MLCAPE. This activity may produce locally
damaging gusts for the next few hours, but otherwise will gradually
decrease in intensity as boundary layer cools this evening.

More isolated convection is observed across KY into the upper OH
Valley. This activity will also gradually wane in intensity as the
evening progresses and low-level lapse rates weaken. Until then, a
few gusts may be noted.

...Darrow.. 08/18/2024

$$

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