Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 17 2024 19:21:42

ACUS03 KWNS 171921
SWODY3
SPC AC 171920

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE
SABINE VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the northern
Great Plains to central High Plains, the Lower Mid-Atlantic States,
and the Sabine Valley on Monday afternoon into the evening.

....Central High to northern Great Plains...
A mid/upper trough should stall near the WA/southern BC coast, while
a downstream ridge flattens/drifts east from the central High Plains
to the Dakotas. As these processes occur, the meridional flow regime
over the Northwest should evolve into predominant southwesterlies,
with some enhancement relative to Sunday in the lee of northern
Rockies. Fairly extensive convective coverage is likely towards mid
to late afternoon as storms develop off the higher terrain within a
broad plume of adequate 700-mb moisture and seasonably rich
boundary-layer dew points across the northern/central High Plains.
Deep-layer shear, especially with east and south extent, will be
relatively modest. This suggests loosely to semi-organized clusters
should dominate with isolated severe gusts as the primary threat.
Localized severe hail is also possible, especially within the peak
buoyancy axis across eastern MT to the Dakotas border area.

....Lower Mid-Atlantic...
A large-scale mid/upper trough will drift east across southeast
Canada to the South Atlantic coast. While severe potential appears
to be less than on Sunday, embedded shortwave impulses and
boundary-layer heating of a still richly moist air mass should
support afternoon scattered thunderstorms focused on the
Mid-Atlantic States into NC. A modest combination of deep-layer
shear and MLCAPE should yield a threat for sporadic strong gusts.
This may yield localized tree damage, peaking in the late afternoon.

....Sabine Valley...
A conditionally adequate environment for a few marginally severe
storms remains apparent along a persistent baroclinic/differential
heating zone from the Lower Red River to Sabine Valleys. Bulk of
guidance, outside of the 12Z GFS/GEFS, suggest convective potential
should remain rather isolated inland of the Gulf Coast. If
surface-based storms can be sustained, the western fringe of
moderate north-northwesterly mid-level flow would foster potential
for a few strong downbursts and small hail.

...Grams.. 08/17/2024

$$

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