Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Aug 17 2024 16:23:12 ACUS01 KWNS 171623 SWODY1 SPC AC 171621 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CASCADES OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON...CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO...AND UTAH.... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today in vicinity of the Cascades of Oregon and Washington, Kentucky, and Utah. Wind and hail are the primary threats. ....CA/OR/WA... Morning water vapor loop shows a strong and fast-moving shortwave trough approaching the coast of northern CA. This feature will rotate inland, affecting the Cascades region this afternoon and evening. Steep mid level lapse rates and pockets of MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by early afternoon over the mountains and coastal ranges of northern CA, building quickly northward into southern/central OR. Winds aloft will be strenghtening during this period, allowing a few supercell storm structures to likely develop. These storms may pose a threat of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon as they track northward into WA. Other high-based storms capable of gusty/damaging winds may affect parts of the Columbia Basin of northern OR/central WA as well. ....UT... A compact shortwave trough over central NV will continue to rotate around the Four-Corners upper ridge into UT today. Considerable coverage of afternoon thunderstorms will likely accompany this system. Winds aloft will be relatively strong, favoring faster-moving organized multicell or occasional supercell structures capable of damaging winds and hail. One forecast uncertainty is the extent of morning cloudiness and its impact on afternoon destabilization. Regardless, at least isolated severe storms are expected, with some threat spreading into southwest WY by evening. ....Eastern US... A broad upper trough will affect much of the eastern US today, with clusters of thunderstorms from NY/PA across the Appalachians into the Mid South. Any of these clusters may occasionally pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts or hail. However, perhaps a more focused area of concern will extend from northern TN into southern OH. The axis of the mid level speed max (~40 knots) will spread across this area during the afternoon. CAM guidance has been consistent on suggesting a higher confidence in a few intense cells in this region. ...Hart/Thornton.. 08/17/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .