Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Aug 17 2024 09:02:10 ACUS48 KWNS 170902 SWOD48 SPC AC 170900 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ....DISCUSSION... ....Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6... A shortwave ridge over the eastern part of the northern Plains is forecast to deamplify on Tuesday. Further west, the large-scale upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains on Tuesday and into the upper Mississippi Valley from Wednesday into Thursday. This feature will move away from a moist axis in the northern Plains, where moderate instability is forecast each afternoon. Thunderstorm development, some with potential for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts, will be possible each day. The greatest severe threat during the mid-week is expected on Wednesday in the Dakotas, where southwest mid-level flow and strong instability is forecast in the wake of the upper-level ridge. ....Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8... On Friday, some model solutions deepen an upper-level trough over the Intermountain West. In response, the north-central U.S upper-level ridge would move eastward toward the western Great Lakes. Isolated thunderstorms, possibly associated with a severe threat, would be possible within a moist airmass located further to the west from Nebraska into the Dakotas. However, some solutions are slow to move the upper-level trough into the western U.S. This would keep the upper-level ridge further west, negatively impacting the severe potential across the northern Plains. Under this scenario, storm coverage would be more isolated and the severe threat would not be as great. ...Broyles.. 08/17/2024 = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .