Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Aug 17 2024 05:43:37 ACUS01 KWNS 170543 SWODY1 SPC AC 170542 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/KY...UTAH REGION...AND PARTS OF WESTERN OREGON/SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of Kentucky and the Ohio Valley on Saturday afternoon. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also expected across the Utah region and over parts of western Oregon into southwest Washington. Wind and hail are the primary threats. ....Ohio Valley/KY... Great Lakes/Midwest trough will progress east today and extend from Lower MI-KY by 18/00z. High-level diffluent flow will be noted across the OH Valley into the Mid South which will prove favorable for scattered robust convection, especially by early afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes with daytime heating. Strength of this feature will encourage a notable synoptic front to advance into OH/western KY by late afternoon, coincident with favorable upper diffluence. Latest model guidance suggests a considerable amount of convection will likely evolve along/ahead the wind shift, concentrated within a zone of stronger instability -- KY/southern OH. While some supercell potential does exist across this region, the majority of storms will likely be multicellular with clusters common. Wind/hail are expected with this activity. ....Utah Region... Well-defined mid-level short-wave trough is lifting north across the lower CO River Valley late this evening. With the upper ridge holding across the southern Rockies, this feature will progress across UT early in the period before shifting into eastern ID/southwest WY by late afternoon. Latest HREF model guidance actually reflects this short wave well with all members exhibiting substantial convection near the mid-level vort over southeast NV at sunrise. This activity will spread/develop northeast across UT during the day within a strongly sheared environment. Though, lapse rates will be seasonally weak given the convective coverage and cloud cover. Even so, robust organized updrafts are expected and wind should be the primary threat with these storms. ....Western OR/Southwest WA... Strong 500mb speed max will round the base of the offshore trough and translate across northern CA into eastern OR by early evening. Left exit region of this feature will aid UVV near the higher terrain and cooling/moistening mid-levels will contribute to modest buoyancy along the cyclonic side of the speed max. Forecast soundings exhibit strongly sheared profiles and isolated supercells are expected to develop, then spread north-northeast as a short-wave trough ejects into southern WA. Hail/wind are possible with these storms. ...Darrow/Squitieri.. 08/17/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .