Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 17 2024 00:52:37

ACUS01 KWNS 170052
SWODY1
SPC AC 170051

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across
portions of the southern Plains/southeast Kansas into northwest
Arkansas. Damaging gusts and hail are the primary threats.

....01z Update...

Low-amplitude short-wave trough is currently evident in satellite
imagery, extending from southeast KS-northeast TX Panhandle. This
feature is digging southeast within mean northwesterly flow along
the back side of the Great Lakes/OH Valley trough. Synoptic front
that advanced into this region arcs across MO-southern KS-northern
TX Panhandle. This boundary is serving as a focus for scattered
robust convection, mostly concentrated across southeast KS/extreme
northeast OK along the northern fringe of a most buoyant airmass.
Surface temperatures remain in the 90s to near 100F south of the
boundary across much of OK into the TX south Plains. 00z sounding
from OUN exhibits MLCAPE on the order of 3000 J/kg with 30kt 0-6km
bulk shear. Latest VWP data depicts 1km flow around 15kt across
northeast OK, but models suggest LLJ will increase over the next
several hours into northeast OK where values may exceed 30kt. This
will favor a southeast-moving complex of storms into northern AR
later this evening. Damaging gusts and hail remain the primary
threats.

...Darrow.. 08/17/2024

$$

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