Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 16 2024 22:11:28

AWUS01 KWNH 162211
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-170238-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0887
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
610 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Areas affected...Northeast Minnesota...Wisconsin...Upper Peninsula
of Michigan

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 162210Z - 170238Z

Summary...Widespread thunderstorms continue across the Upper
Midwest beneath a vertically stacked low-pressure center. Cell
mergers along outflows and multiple lake breeze boundaries will
increase the chance of rainfall rates exceeding 2"/hr.

Discussion...Trends in IR imagery suggest convection across
north-central Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula is intensifying
amid multiple cell mergers and lake breeze boundary collisions.
Thus far, these thunderstorms with 5-10 kt storm motions and
1.5-1.8"/hr rainfall rates have resulted in scattered 1-3 HR
QPE/FFG exceedences and isolated reports of flash flooding across
Wisconsin this afternoon.

A buoyant and moist airmass beneath the upper-low will continue to
support this activity through the afternoon, with 1500 J/kg of
MLCAPE, negligible CIN, and 1.5" PWATS (around the 90th percentile
for GRB) noted by recent mesoanalysis estimates. As additional
slow moving cells develop and merge with the multiple boundaries
at play, 18Z HREF neighborhood probabilities suggest an increasing
chance of rainfall rates exceeding 2"/hr within the most intense
cells through the next several hours, which could breach the
1-2"/hr FFGs across the area. This will maintain the threat of
isolated flash flooding through the 1-2Z timeframe before
convection wanes with loss of heating.

Asherman

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_DypNWC_OjXIaRLIRK8_r2DItwAT3o9saNdQyO-aKMxiRprpaCQMUdhWepV7T2Ev91Cz=
57bPejU41b2sEqYLvtQeeoc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...GRB...MKX...MPX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   48359117 48259039 47378963 47498756 46528677=20
            44918728 43728760 43598819 44548918 45609100=20
            46519234 47649250 48179187=20

=3D =3D =3D
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