Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 16 2024 19:43:55

AWUS01 KWNH 161943
FFGMPD
FLZ000-170000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0886
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
343 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Areas affected...South Florida Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161942Z - 170000Z

Summary...Very slow moving cells have erupted across South
Florida. Storm motions of 5-kts or less combined with 2-3"/hr
rainfall rates may lead to isolated instances of urban flash
flooding this afternoon.

Discussion...Radar and visible satellite imagery across South
Florida depict expanding thunderstorm coverage in the vicinity of
a modified front southwest of the Florida Peninsula. The most
robust thunderstorms were located south of Naples, FL, containing
radar estimated rainfall rates of 2.75-3"/hr while exhibiting a
localized backbuilding signature.

The weak frontal boundary, frictional convergence, and outflows
from current storms will continue to drive additional
thunderstorms in the area over the next several hours.
Mesoanalysis and earlier sounding data out of MFL suggest an
anomalously moist airmass is in place across the region--even for
South Florida--with estimated PWATS of 2.2-2.3" available for the
convection to tap into (which is above the 90th percentile or
MFL). When combined with 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE (with no CIN)
and storm motions of less than 5 kts, the environment appears
quite supportive of localized very heavy rainfall amounts this
afternoon where cells proliferate.

Accordingly, the 12z CAMs are quite wet across the Southwest
Florida coastline, with a consistent signal for 3-4" totals
(locally 5-6") advertised through 0z. This is expected to drive a
threat of some flash flooding through the afternoon, focused over
urbanized areas with poor drainage.

Asherman

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6FKyMzh-WkselEZwcvufnFt2oFU5eUB_7v2I9I11KKAlSeu-dul4XqirSpvoCXZ-12wr=
bCz7kQOPiD1afUAeZnbHAjU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   26298170 25888118 25578076 25418057 25148048=20
            25008073 25108111 25718160 26078196=20

=3D =3D =3D
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