Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Aug 16 2024 19:35:32 ACUS01 KWNS 161935 SWODY1 SPC AC 161933 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY TONIGHT FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible for central/southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas. Very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe gusts up to 75 mph are the expected hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ....KS into OK/AR/MO through tonight... A cluster of storms has persisted into the afternoon with most of the activity on the cool side of a frontal zone. However, a leading supercell has maintained its intensity into southern Kansas were temperatures are in the mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid 70s with SPC mesoanalysis indicating MLCINH has mostly eroded. Therefore, additional intensification of this storm and additional development on the trailing outflow to its west is possible. For additional information, see MCD #1921. ....TN/OH Valley this afternoon/evening... Thunderstorms are ongoing within a broad region of moderate to strong instability and weak shear from Arkansas to Tennessee and southern Kentucky. Given the instability, isolated damaging wind gusts are possible, but the lack of shear and better storm organization should preclude any organized severe-weather threat. ....WI to Lower MI this afternoon into early tonight... Thunderstorms have started to develop across eastern Wisconsin within a pocket of greater instability west of Lake Michigan. See MCD #1920 for more discussion of the threat across this region. ...Bentley.. 08/16/2024 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024/ ....KS into OK through tonight... Elevated thunderstorms have formed/strengthened since 14-15z from west central into southwest KS in a zone of low-midlevel warm advection downstream from an embedded speed max aloft. There is still some uncertainty regarding the longevity of these morning storms. However, if the ongoing storms persist into early-mid afternoon when surface temperatures warm into the 90s F, convective inhibition will diminish and the storms will become fully rooted at the surface. Given the conditionally favorable thermodynamic (MLCAPE >2000 J/kg) and vertical shear (effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt) environment expected across southern KS/northern OK by this afternoon, will maintain the SLGT risk for large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter and severe outflow gusts up to 75 mph. ....TN/OH Valleys this afternoon/evening... A closed midlevel low will move generally eastward over WI/MI through Saturday morning, as embedded perturbations rotate around the southern periphery of the low. Elevated convection has been slowly weakening through the morning across KY/southern OH, with other storms located farther southwest into western TN. This convection farther south will have more direct access to the moist/unstable warm sector, and there will be some potential for an increase in both storm coverage and intensity this afternoon from middle/eastern TN into northern AL/northwest GA. Occasional downbursts with wind damage will be the main concern with multicell clusters, given the relatively weak deep-layer flow/shear. ....WI to Lower MI this afternoon into early tonight... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form across WI this afternoon and spread eastward into early tonight, along and ahead of a surface cold front, and in advance of the midlevel closed low. Moisture/buoyancy will be sufficient for strong storms capable of producing isolated large hail near 1 inch and isolated wind damage, but modest vertical shear suggests primarily multicell storms. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .