Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Aug 16 2024 19:29:04 ACUS03 KWNS 161928 SWODY3 SPC AC 161927 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ....SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the Southeast, centered on central to south Alabama into central/eastern North Carolina, during Sunday afternoon to early evening. ....Deep South to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States... A slow-moving mid/upper trough, with its axis over the Lower Great Lakes, is largely progged to amplify as a mid/upper jetlet digs towards the basal portion of the trough. This will result in the belt of enhanced west-southwesterly to northwesterly mid-level flow shifting south across the Southeast by Sunday afternoon. Occluded surface cyclone should drift east across southern ON into western NY. An arcing cold front will largely extend south across the Mid-Atlantic to Southeast before trailing westward over the Deep South to Lower MS Valley. The combination of moderate to strong buoyancy with a moderate northwesterly deep-layer shear should be greatest across parts of MS to GA. A greater probability for thunderstorm development is expected from the Carolinas northward. A corridor of favorable overlap for a mixed mode of clusters and a few supercells is apparent from parts of central/south AL into central/eastern NC. Strong to isolated severe gusts capable of producing scattered damaging winds should be the primary threat during the afternoon to early evening. Isolated large hail will also be possible, especially with western extent. ....Central/northern High Plains... A mid/upper ridge will remain anchored across the High Plains between the amplifying trough over the East and a trough along the Pacific Northwest coast. A plume of rich boundary-layer moisture will persist from the Ozarks into the central High Plains within a modest northwesterly mid-level flow regime. Elevated convection, driven by low-level warm theta-e advection, should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday across parts of central NE and far southern SD. This activity may strengthen during the morning with a threat for isolated severe hail as it gradually sinks southward. At least isolated surface-based storms should develop off the higher terrain during the afternoon and gradually move east across the High Plains into the evening. Localized severe wind/hail will be possible. ...Grams.. 08/16/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .