Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 16 2024 07:20:16

AWUS01 KWNH 160720
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-161318-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0885
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
319 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Areas affected...much of central Illinois into western Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160718Z - 161318Z

Summary...A maturing convective complex was increasing in
intensity and rain rates over the past hour.  Isolated instances
of flash flooding are possible with this activity as it translates
eastward across the discussion area.

Discussion...Over the past couple hours, a maturing MCS was
increasing in intensity per satellite imagery along a line from
near Champaign, IL to near Hannibal, MO.  The complex was embedded
in appreciable southwesterly flow aloft, leading to 30-35 kt storm
motions.  However, those storm motions were resulting in a few
areas of training cells due to only slow southward translation of
the MCS.  Areas of 1 inch/hr rain rates were expanding in coverage
as a result.  Proximity of the convective complex to enhanced
850mb flow was also likely playing a role in intensification.  The
storms also remain in a moist/unstable environment (around 2 inch
PW values and 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE), further supporting efficient
rainfall processes.  Given ongoing convective trends, areas of
1.5-2 inch/hr rain rates are becoming more likely.  These rates
will exceed local FFG thresholds at times, resulting in at least
an isolated flash flood threat in the next 2-3 hours.

Relatively quick eastward movement should allow for much of the
complex to eventually to cross the IL/IN border and into Indiana.
Instability drops off with eastward extent into Indiana, and it is
probable that lower rain rates should materialize with eastward
extent toward the I-65 corridor through the overnight and early
morning hours.  Until then, at least isolated flash flood
potential is expected across the discussion area.  Local cell
mergers (with open-warm-sector convection merging into the ongoing
complex from the south) could also result in a bump in rain rates
at times along with convective training processes.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!45ZRHXmlRlI3W5hvva5Jg7-NhkBdpYvyeYXjMQh1ebslEQkqoG4fVjnThE15m8eUucB6=
lqI8GNalkkeXcqA10vHpg68$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...LSX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40878878 40778688 40048601 39468598 38878692=20
            38598784 38708994 39469098 40509057=20

=3D =3D =3D
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