Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 16 2024 06:57:18

AWUS01 KWNH 160657
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-161255-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0884
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
256 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Areas affected...southern Missouri, northern Arkansas,
northwestern Tennessee, western Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 160655Z - 161255Z

Summary...A maturing MCS is continuing across southern Missouri,
and localized rain rates of 1-2 inches/hr are persisting.  These
trends should continue for at least the next 3-5 hours, with flash
flooding likely especially in areas near/east of Springfield.

Discussion...Over the past couple hours, a relatively focused axis
of heavy rainfall has materialized from near Springfield eastward
to Mountain Grove and areas just north of West Plains, where an
estimated 2-4 inch rainfall totals have occurred over the past 3
hours or so.  The backbuiding was being supported by 1) confluent
southwesterly 850mb flow across the region, 2) convergence along
the western edge of a maturing cold pool near Springfield, and 3)
ascent associated with a mid-leve shortwave trough over central
Missouri.  The upstream airmass feeding into this axis of rainfall
is characterized by areas of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.7+ inch
PW values - supportive of continued intense updrafts.  The ongoing
regime should continue to pose locally significant flash flood
potential in the short term (especially near and east of
Springfield).

Over the next 3-6 hours, models suggest that 850mb flow will
gradually veer to westerly and become less confluent but remain in
the 25kt range.  This flow regime is likely to continue supporting
deep updraft development especially along the western and southern
flanks of ongoing convection.  Areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates are
likely to continue in this regime, resulting in scattered
instances of flash flooding.  Locally significant impacts are
possible - especially if backbuilding near Springfield continues
to spread heavy rain across areas that have already experienced
2-4 inch rainfall totals (and are exhibiting moderate to high MRMS
Flash responses).  Latest indications are that deeper updrafts may
begin to materialize closer to the Missouri/Arkansas border with
time.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-AvOnNbCwlPFm94qiHwMsWzD6EgwFA-x1y0Pqd7ssj2zWqvfnAdlVUolqxlTlJag7_Iy=
17X_YDThXSul8_OtTMvd7Zc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38049168 37588900 37148791 36238829 35709002=20
            36199377 36929429 37979352=20

=3D =3D =3D
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