Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1917
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 16 2024 04:44:25

ACUS11 KWNS 160444
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160444=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-160515-

Mesoscale Discussion 1917
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Areas affected...northeastern Oklahoma...northwestern Arkansas...and
southern Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 625...

Valid 160444Z - 160515Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 625
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe risk continues to gradually diminish across the
Ozarks region and into northeastern Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a continued/gradual decreasing
trend in terms of the intensity of the ongoing/isolated convection
across the remaining portions of the watch.  Two clusters of storms
- one moving east-southeastward across northeastern Oklahoma and a
second over south-central Missouri just north of the Arkansas border
-- remain fairly vigorous, and capable of a locally damaging wind
gust or two in the short term.  With time, a continued/gradual
decrease in convective intensity/severe potential is expected, as
the boundary layer continues to gradually stabilize.  However, ample
instability suggests that storms -- and perhaps a sporadic/strong
gust -- may continue into the overnight hours locally.  Still, with
the overall wane in risk, the scheduled 16/05Z expiration of the WW
appears appropriate, with new WW issuance not required.

...Goss.. 08/16/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-2Jp2mNgz6Jd7NHmyDx3dmvZKNvcb2jwBFEUQs6zBAbtWUaWJV0TluszNllJozVoS-RmcE8je=
xTOBg32oavIfcHnXfs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   35359624 35939608 36779370 37049317 37719202 37199083
            36649092 36119372 35229563 35359624=20


=3D =3D =3D
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