Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 16 2024 00:45:25

ACUS01 KWNS 160045
SWODY1
SPC AC 160043

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight across parts
of the Midwest into Oklahoma.  Severe gusts and large hail are the
primary risks with the stronger thunderstorms.

....01z Update...

Upper trough is shifting into the MS Valley early this evening,
which is contributing to high-level difluent flow from the upper
Midwest into the southern Plains. This corridor will remain
favorable for scattered deep convection tonight, some of it robust
and potentially severe.

A reservoir of high buoyancy is juxtaposed along this zone with
MLCAPE values exceeding 3000 J/kg from northeast OK into MO. This
high instability airmass is partially driven by strong boundary-
layer heating and steep 0-3km lapse rates. 00z sounding from SGF
supports this along with 0-6km bulk shear on the order of 30kt. As
the trough shifts east tonight, large-scale ascent will spread
across the middle MS Valley, which will encourage a weak LLJ to
focus from northern AR into western KY later tonight. With time, the
most concentrated corridor of organized convection should focus
across southern MO into western KY, aided in large part by the
aforementioned LLJ.

Farther southwest across OK, damaging-wind threat will likely be
concentrated this evening.  00z sounding from OUN has a PW reading
approaching 2 inches. High-based convection that developed along the
I44 corridor should continue drifting south in the wake of the short
wave. Boundary-layer cooling should lead to gradual weakening by
04-05z.

...Darrow.. 08/16/2024

$$

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