Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Aug 15 2024 17:31:22 ACUS02 KWNS 151731 SWODY2 SPC AC 151729 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH KS AND NORTH OK... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and eastern states on Friday, with localized damaging winds as the primary hazard. A relatively greater concentration of large hail and severe gusts may occur across parts of south Kansas into north Oklahoma on Friday afternoon into the evening. ....Western KS to the Ozarks... At least isolated elevated thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Friday over a part of the central High Plains. This activity may persist and intensify during the day as increasingly pronounced differential heating occurs along an east-southeast oriented baroclinic zone across central/south KS to the Ozarks. Hot temperatures will exist to the south in north OK and the TX Panhandle where full insolation occurs. With moderate to strong effective bulk shear within a west-northwesterly mid to upper flow regime, potential will exist for a few supercells from both elevated convection early to surface-based storms during the afternoon to early evening. With the lack of an appreciable mid/upper-level shortwave impulse and relatively modest low-level warm theta-e advection initially, confidence is below average in terms of diurnal convective evolution as well as the spatial placement for the mesoscale corridor of greater threat. Environmentally though, the setup will favor potential for isolated to scattered large hail to around tennis-ball size and severe gusts to 70 mph. The more robust storms should peak around late afternoon to early evening. ....Great Lakes into the OH/TN Valleys and Mid-South... A mid/upper-level trough will move slowly east across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes regions. A belt of enhanced mid-level flow (around 40-50 kts at 500 mb) should be present on Friday afternoon across the Lower MO to the OH Valleys. An attendant surface cyclone over WI should drift into Lower MI with a weak cold front extending southwestward across the Mid-MS Valley. Decaying but still extensive convection should be ongoing at 12Z Friday morning across parts of the Mid-South/Lower OH Valley, with more isolated storms possible north into Lower MI. The southern portion of this morning activity may diurnally intensify as the remnant cold pool/outflow shifts southeast into the TN Valley. With decreasing shear to the south and poor mid-level lapse rates, the primary threat should be from sporadic strong gusts producing localized tree damage. Scattered to broken coverage of afternoon thunderstorms is most likely across parts of the southern Great Lakes vicinity from south WI to north OH. Occasional strong to localized severe gusts will be the main threat, especially as multicell clustering occurs later in the afternoon. The threat across the Lower Great Lakes/Upper OH Valley should diminish with eastern extent as convection spreads away from the buoyancy plume. Marginally severe hail will be possible with convection closer to the shortwave trough amid slightly cooler mid-level temperatures. Overall convective potential across the Lower OH/Mid-MS Valleys may be diurnally subdued in the wake of overnight/early morning convection and stronger forcing for ascent remaining to the north. Conditionally, the environment would favor organized storms within the enhanced mid-level jet. ....Northern/central High Plains... Despite low-amplitude, mid-level ridging, an enhanced belt of westerlies could favor transient supercell structures with isolated high-based thunderstorms that develop during the late afternoon. Steepened low to mid-level lapse rates will favor a threat for localized large hail and severe gusts. ...Grams.. 08/15/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .