Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 15 2024 00:54:17

ACUS01 KWNS 150054
SWODY1
SPC AC 150052

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSOURI VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards remain
possible this evening across portions of the middle Missouri Valley.

....01z Update...

Well-defined short-wave trough is ejecting across the High Plains
early this evening. LLJ is beginning to increase across eastern KS
ahead of this feature, and is forecast to intensify across northwest
MO/southern IA later this evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms
have developed ahead of the surface front from southeast NE into
central KS. This activity should propagate downstream into a
favorable zone of low-level warm advection after sunset, aided by
increasing LLJ. Very moist, buoyant airmass exists ahead of the
convection with MLCAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg, extending as
far northeast as northwest MO. Some supercell concern exists along
this corridor despite the modest deep-layer shear. 00z sounding from
TOP exhibited 30kt surface-6km bulk shear, with 0-3km SRH on the
order of 400 m2/s2. Hail/wind threat exists with this activity along
with some tornado risk.

Upstream, secondary low-amplitude short-wave trough is shifting east
across WY early this evening. Scattered robust convection has
developed ahead of this feature, arcing from the southern Black
Hills into southeast WY. Another band of organized robust storms has
developed across eastern SD. Isolated marginally severe gusts or
hail could be noted with this activity for the next few hours.

...Darrow.. 08/15/2024

$$

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