Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Aug 14 2024 08:58:09

ACUS48 KWNS 140858
SWOD48
SPC AC 140856

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance remains in good agreement that upper ridging
will remain prominent, and probably further amplify, over much of
the Rockies/Plains this weekend into early next week. An upper
trough should progress slowly eastward from the Midwest/OH Valley to
the eastern states on Day 4/Saturday. While an isolated severe risk
may exist across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast ahead
of a weak front, the overall environment currently appears too
marginal given modest deep-layer shear to warrant inclusion of a 15%
severe area for Saturday. Otherwise, an upper trough/low should
mostly remain off the coast of the Pacific Northwest through at
least early next week, before possibly advancing inland towards the
end of the forecast period (around Day 8/Wednesday). There is a fair
amount of uncertainty regarding potential suppression of the upper
ridge early next week. Regardless, the severe threat across the
CONUS may tend to remain fairly isolated in this time frame, with
the exception of potential MCS development from parts of the Plains
into the Midwest/OH Valley in a northwesterly mid-level flow regime.
But, predictability remains far too low to include any areas early
next week.

...Gleason.. 08/14/2024

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