Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Aug 14 2024 01:39:06

ACUS01 KWNS 140139
SWODY1
SPC AC 140137

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0837 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI...

CORRECTED THUNDER LINE IN NORTHERN MONTANA

....SUMMARY...
Isolated wind/hail risk will persist for the next few hours from
eastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska and northern Kansas.
Some risk for hail/wind may also evolve from central Nebraska
southeastward into Missouri.

....Central High Plains eastward to the Middle Missouri Valley, and
southeastward into Missouri...
An upscale-growing band of strong/severe storms has evolved over the
northeastern Colorado vicinity this evening, moving eastward toward
southwestern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas.  Evening RAOBs and
RAP-based objective analyses indicate moderate instability (1000 to
2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE), and sufficient shear to allow storms to
continue to organize and shift eastward this evening.  Along with
potential for hail, locally damaging wind gusts in the 60 to 70 MPH
range can be expected.

Later tonight, a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet across
the central Plains and associated ascent may support a separate zone
of elevated storm development, where moderate elevated CAPE is
expected.  With shear sufficient for organized storms, and even a
supercell or two, local risk for hail -- and possibly a strong wind
gust -- warrants continuation of MRGL risk across this area.

...Goss.. 08/14/2024

$$

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