Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 13 2024 23:17:29

AWUS01 KWNH 132317
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-140515-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0878
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
716 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Areas affected...Portions of the High Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 132315Z - 140515Z

Summary...Cells initiating along the Front Range are intensifying
as they move eastward into a very buoyant airmass. The threat of
scattered flash flooding going into the evening as these storms
grow upscale and realize rainfall rates of 2-2.5"/hr at times.

Discussion...Trends in radar mosaic and IR imagery along the Front
Range suggest storms are rapidly intensifying and expanding as
they translate eastward into a very buoyant and unstable airmass
associated with a warn front east of the terrain. While this
activity was fairly progressive with estimated east-northeast
motions of 20-30 kts, rainfall rates of 1.5-1.8"/hr earlier lead
to a fairly quick response in CREST Unit Streamflows of 100-400
cfs/smi across eastern Colorado.

Over the next several hours, upscale growth of these cells into an
MCS with efficient hourly rates upwards of 2-2.5"/hr is expected
as they encounter 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE, 1.8-1.9" PWATS (above
the 90th percentile compared to regional sounding sites), and
increasing 925-850 hPa inflow with a strong upslope component.
This scenario is captured well in the 18z HREF suite, which
depicts a fairly progressive but efficient MCS that tracks
eastward across Northeast Colorado into Kansas and Nebraska over
the next several hours. As it does, 40 km neighborhood
probabilities show an increasing threat of 3-6 HR FFG exceedence
across portions of the High Plains by 3Z tonight (60 and 50%,
respectively), which could support scattered instances of flash
flooding tonight.

Asherman

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!93pSbLIgROo6F_BW_ad9jqWahdzzf5_qBW43Ov4gm8cK4mSHsWliOsLsEJdvj-82uS_F=
Xap1Nt8sAQ4k5l2TBLNUu_8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...GID...GLD...LBF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   41860292 41240036 39709993 38930118 38630284=20
            39160450 40190497 41400463=20

=3D =3D =3D
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