Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1895
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 13 2024 22:32:08

ACUS11 KWNS 132232
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132231=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-132330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1895
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0531 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Areas affected...Northeastern Colorado...Southwestern Nebraska...and
Northeastern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 132231Z - 132330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch will be needed across portions
of eastern Colorado into northwestern Kansas and southwestern
Nebraska, as convection is expected to organize into a MCS capable
of damaging gusts later this evening.

DISCUSSION...Multiple clusters of thunderstorms have developed over
the High Plains of Colorado this afternoon, and are expected to
continue to move eastward into a more favorable environment for
convective organization. Deep-layer shear of 30-40 kts (with a
substantial warm-frontal boundary-parallel component of the
vectors), along with MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, will support further
organization of these clusters into a linear convective system
capable of damaging wind gusts. The greatest threat for damaging
winds will be with any bowing segments that develop as convection
matures later this evening. Large hail will be possible,
particularly in the transition from multicell/supercell clusters
into a linear system, though mid-level lapse rates of ~6.5 C/km
could potentially be a limiting factor. Some tornado potential
exists in the early evening transition period, when the nocturnal
low-level jet will produce enlarged/curved hodoraphs with lots of
streamwise vorticity in the lowest levels. However, the largely
boundary-parallel shear vectors, along with colliding thunderstorm
outflows, will limit any long-lived tornado potential.

...Halbert/Wendt/Edwards.. 08/13/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!40pH5Y38XqeBmrltOxvt-Pu0JJYjH03mLt8JLzBtMYXKTvzja35rQY32MZr_qcJ1bs0dOVI2t=
DVmIDq3g5gsU2JpJWY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41540080 41180009 40959995 40310004 39630077 39110170
            39020216 39120313 39200397 39430423 39810432 40150436
            40520433 40780430 41120419 41450382 41510321 41580282
            41590196 41540080=20


=3D =3D =3D
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