Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1894
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 13 2024 21:49:36

ACUS11 KWNS 132149
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132148=20
WYZ000-UTZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-140015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1894
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Areas affected...Eastern Idaho...Western Wyoming...Northern Utah

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 132148Z - 140015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will likely continue for a few
more hours. Hail and gusty winds will be the primary threats. The
severe threats should remain too marginal for weather watch issuance
is not expected.

DISCUSSION...The latest water-vapor imagery and 500 mb RAP analysis
suggest that a shortwave trough is moving through the northern
Rockies. Lift associated with this feature, is supporting scattered
thunderstorm development near a pocket of moderate instability from
northern Utah into eastern Idaho. MLCAPE within this area is
estimated by the RAP to be in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Mid-level
lapse rates are also steep. In addition, the latest WSR-88D at
Pocatello, Idaho has 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, with speed shear
mostly in the mid-levels. This should be enough for locally strong
to severe convection. A rotating storm or two will be possible with
hail and gusty winds as the primary threats. The marginal severe
threat may persist into the early evening.

...Broyles/Edwards.. 08/13/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_dW4wi2ZvN_YzKkrcUYX_lXcg24L6GBptdY3JEuvZH3_SgxRVhnQ46d-LpvJ6HPdYE2w4e5UZ=
ew6ZgffJ5RLiYqOFDs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...

LAT...LON   42501262 41431293 40251316 39681288 39571231 39841140
            40571059 42001000 43070973 44060967 44440987 44701038
            44731090 44581150 44221193 43661227 42871252 42501262=20


=3D =3D =3D
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