Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1892
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 13 2024 18:51:35

ACUS11 KWNS 131851
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131850=20
WYZ000-MTZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-132115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1892
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Areas affected...parts of southwestern Montana....western
Wyoming...eastern Idaho and northern Utah

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 131850Z - 132115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered stronger storms will probably continue to
develop and intensify through 3-4 PM MDT, with at least a couple
becoming severe and posing a risk for large hail and locally
damaging wind gusts.  Due to the relatively isolated nature of the
severe threat, a severe weather watch appears unlikely, but trends
will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Precipitable water in excess of 1 inch is advecting
northward in a narrow plume, near and to the west of the Wasatch
toward the mountains of southwestern Montana.  This is occurring in
advance of a mid-level trough and embedded cyclonic circulation now
progressing east-northeastward across the northern Intermountain
Region, and contributing to modest destabilization with daytime
heating.  Mixed-layer CAPE is now in excess of 1000 J/kg, with
large-scale forcing for ascent contributing to weakening inhibition
and increasing scattered thunderstorm development.

Into and through 21-23Z, a gradual further intensification of storms
appears likely, aided by increasingly unstable low-level
storm-relative inflow, in the presence of strengthening westerly
mid/upper wind fields, including 30-50 kt in the 500-300 mb layer.=20
The evolution of widely scattered supercells is possible,
accompanied by a risk for severe hail and locally strong surface
gusts.

...Kerr/Mosier.. 08/13/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-82GAS3ymDmpduY07wbbwP7ZjBXe81mz_4gIKYtv6qQQU-mF9eI06wUq0bXx-kwNNogzFD4tN=
C9DGg9ZRfgOg1qVTK4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...

LAT...LON   41391352 42421292 43221291 43761314 44321324 44751313
            45681217 46021090 45590996 44280975 41801078 40851160
            40691295 41391352=20


=3D =3D =3D
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