Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Aug 13 2024 12:41:33 ACUS01 KWNS 131241 SWODY1 SPC AC 131240 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...AS WELL AS SOUTH CAROLINA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Great Plains, as well as South Carolina. ....The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. A residual plume of seasonably high moisture resides from the Four Corners northward into the northern High Plains. The most notable mid-level shortwave will move from the OR/NV vicinity this morning northeastward into MT this afternoon/evening. Heating will contribute to weak to moderate instability across this broad region from the Interior West to the High Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop by late this afternoon into the early evening. A locally greater severe risk may evolve from eastern ID into northern UT where forecast soundings show shear profiles supporting a mixed mode of supercells/multicells. However, some uncertainty remains due to ongoing early morning convection and related airmass recovery. Nonetheless, an isolated risk for hail/wind will likely encompass the UT/ID/WY/MT corridor. Farther east and northeast, an isolated threat for hail/wind will potentially accompany the stronger late-day storms with some of this activity lingering into the evening across eastern CO in the form of a thunderstorm cluster. ....Central Plains/lower MO Valley... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ....South Carolina... Surface analysis this morning depicts a remnant weak frontal zone draped from southern GA into the Carolinas. A very moist airmass sampled by the 12 UTC Charleston raob (XXX lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio) will diurnally destabilize today. Weak convergence via the frontal zone will aid in widely scattered storms developing by early to mid afternoon due to a negligible cap. A mid to upper-level disturbance moving southeast into the southern Appalachians this morning will move to the Carolina coastal plain later today. Moderate west-northwesterlies (around 30 kt at 500 mb) may aid in some multicellular organization. Isolated gusts 50-60 mph capable of wind damage will be the primary concern with the stronger storms. ...Smith/Jewell.. 08/13/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .