Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Aug 13 2024 04:26:13 AWUS01 KWNH 130426 FFGMPD NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-130824- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0872 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1225 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Areas affected...Far Southeast WY...Northeast CO...Far Southwest NE Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 130424Z - 130824Z SUMMARY...Slow-moving and locally backbuilding areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue across portions of far southeast WY, northeast CO and far southwest NE over the next few hours. Areas of flash flooding will be possible. DISCUSSION...The late evening GOES-E IR satellite imagery in conjunction with local dual-pol radar shows an area of rather persistent and locally backbuilding shower and thunderstorm activity over parts of far southeast WY and northeast CO to the east of the Front Range with a focus on northern Weld County, CO where some notably cold cloud tops are situated. Ejecting shortwave energy from the central Rockies and interaction with convergent and moist/unstable low-level flow east of the Front Range along a frontal boundary is facilitating the persistence of the convection late this evening. Convergence is locally being enhanced also by proximity of a wave of low pressure along the front over northeast CO to the east of the Boulder vicinity. MUCAPE values are on the order of 1000 to 1500 J/kg and there should still be sufficient levels of instability and forcing near the front for convection to persist for a few more hours. The convection may also tend to locally redevelop or advance farther east into some of the open High Plains of northeast CO. Portions of far southwest NE may also see some of this convection persist in the short-term. PWs across the region are quite high and are running over 2 standard deviations above normal. This will favor high rainfall rates with the convection which may reach 2 inches/hour with the stronger storms that persist over the next few hours. The 00Z HREF guidance maintains some locally elevated probabilities of seeing the 3-hour FFG exceeded over the next few hours, with some additional rainfall amounts of as much as 3 to 4 inches with isolated heavier amounts. These rains may result in some areas of flash flooding in the short-term as a result before the activity begins to weaken. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5HGitBF31tHLkx8RkpRk_5tKKk03VFqtyqOjV7eTwzG6VRjL5eOqwudnotXcxSbnfPd7= Bf-Qanaa-woAgvfdNvnnNnI$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...GLD... ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 41500402 41430310 40650236 39860318 39430432=20 39650515 40380521 40810539 41200503=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .