Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 13 2024 01:06:28

ACUS01 KWNS 130106
SWODY1
SPC AC 130105

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0805 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Valid 130100Z - 131200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS VICINITY...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may persist over the next several
hours across the central High Plains area.

....Central High Plains vicinity...
Scattered strong/isolated severe storms are ongoing at this time
across portions of the central Plains -- from eastern Colorado south
to northeastern New Mexico.  A modestly moist/moderately unstable
airmass persists across this area, with evening RAOBs and RAP-based
objective analysis indicating that 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer
CAPE persists.

Though mid-level westerlies remain relatively weak (less than 30
kt), low-level easterly flow is contributing to sufficient 0-6km
shear for organized storms -- including a couple of supercells.
Some clustering of storms is occurring near/east of the Palmer
Ridge, with some potential for eastward propagation toward lower
elevations -- including embedded risk for locally strong/damaging
winds and possibly hail.  Still, overall risk should remain limited
as the environment slowly stabilizes this evening, and thus will
maintain only MRGL risk through the evening.

...Goss.. 08/13/2024

$$

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