Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1888
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 12 2024 22:13:58

ACUS11 KWNS 122213
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122213=20
MTZ000-130015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1888
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0513 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Areas affected...North-central Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 122213Z - 130015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A potential will exist for marginally severe gusts and
hail early this evening across parts of north-central Montana. No
watch issuance is anticipated.

DISCUSSION...The latest water-vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave
trough over the northern Rockies, embedded in southwest mid-level
flow. At the surface, a mesolow is analyzed over north-central
Montana, with upslope east-southeasterly flow located across much of
northern and eastern Montana. Isolated thunderstorms have developed
near and to the north of the low along a narrow corridor of
instability, where the RAP is estimating SBCAPE in the 1000 to 1500
J/kg range. Short-term forecast soundings in north-central Montana
early this evening have a relatively dry boundary layer, but show
steep lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear. This may be enough
for a marginal severe threat for a few hours. Strong gusts and hail
will be possible.

...Broyles/Edwards.. 08/12/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4uHNe2o1audHn8tCObmysvcGnp13y-p5Ps5_nl9EL9I699tls7Zmw5EaKO_8VF4RDRfIzMU55=
UF5nrR0MlXoRJpqMBc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON   47221015 47150938 47340862 47740811 48320827 48880909
            48961048 48861165 48541205 48011188 47221015=20


=3D =3D =3D
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