Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Aug 12 2024 21:44:38 AWUS01 KWNH 122144 FFGMPD COZ000-130330- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0871 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 543 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Areas affected...Eastern CO Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 122142Z - 130330Z SUMMARY...Shower and storm coverage is forecast to increase through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening.=20 Slow-moving storms, with heavy rainfall rates, may raise localized flash flooding concerns. DISCUSSION...Latest mesoanalysis shows PWs have been gradually increasing across eastern Colorado over the past few hours, reaching an inch as far west as the I-25 corridor, with MLCAPEs climbing as well to between 500-1500 J/kg across much of the region. This increasing moisture and instability along with modest synoptic scale ascent afforded by a weak mid level shortwave and upper jet forcing is supporting increasing showers and storm development. Local radar shows storms developing near the surface front and moving slowly east out into the High Plains. MRMS estimates show rainfall rates now reaching 1-2 in/hr within some of the stronger storms. Shower and storm coverage is expected to increase through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening as the low-to-mid level flow from the southeast strengthens, supporting increasing moisture across the region.=20 This increase in low level flow is also expected to support slow storm motions, with potential back-building as storms develop.=20 Over the next 6 hrs, HREF guidance is signaling the greatest threat for heavy rains and potential flash flooding will center near Elbert, Lincoln, Kit Carson, and Cheyenne counties. HREF neighborhood probabilities for accumulations of 2 inches or more are 50 percent or greater for portions of those counties, with high probabilities for exceeding 3-hr FFGs as well. Elsewhere, probabilities are lower, however the threat for localized runoff concerns cannot be ruled out, especially across vulnerable areas including burn scar and urbanized areas. Pereira ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7JXMAjawZg47sjaEdT2I8cFlb3SeHvvGSAuYs2kywkrrzsqym7fBKF-0Bly5bpGo14yH= T134Acqe8hSyddryef6evWI$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...PUB... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 40680432 39920316 38940206 38220209 37410285=20 37610398 38590526 39250570 40630537=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .