Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Aug 12 2024 12:24:28 ACUS01 KWNS 121224 SWODY1 SPC AC 121223 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0723 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND NORTHERN MONTANA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the coastal Carolinas, central High Plains, the eastern Great Basin northward into parts of the north-central Rockies, and northern Montana. ....Rockies/Central High Plains Region... Water-vapor imagery this morning depicts a flattened upper anticyclone centered over east TX/LA and a large-scale trough over the WA/OR/northern CA coast. A notable mid-level disturbance will move from the eastern Pacific east-northeastward into northern NV during the period. Mid-level flow ahead of the western U.S. troughing will not be strong, but a plume of seasonably moist air from the Four Corners northward into MT will favor scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing this afternoon into the early evening. Heating will steepen 0-3 km lapse rates and promote severe gusts with the stronger outflow surges from UT northward along the ID/WY border. Recent model guidance also indicates widely scattered to scattered storms developing across northern MT and moving east as a small thunderstorm cluster. Localized severe gusts may accompany this activity before weakening by early to mid evening. Farther east over the central High Plains, the maintenance of moist/upslope flow into the High Plains and higher terrain (i.e., CO Front Range) will promote isolated to scattered storms developing around peak heating and moving into the adjacent High Plains. An isolated risk for large hail/severe gusts will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms. A cluster of storms will likely develop in response to a nocturnal intensification of a LLJ but waning instability by late evening will limit overall storm vigor. ....Coastal Carolinas... Southern influence of eastern US trough will glance this region today as a belt of 20-30kt mid-level flow overspreads a very moisture-rich airmass (i.e., mid to upper 70s deg F surface dewpoints) south of a front. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. Marginally severe gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. ...Smith/Jewell.. 08/12/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .