Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 12 2024 09:31:58

AWUS01 KWNH 120931
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-121530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0867
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
530 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Areas affected...Far Southern IA...Central and Northern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120930Z - 121530Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms will be capable of locally
training over the same area and may result in a few instances of
flash flooding going through the mid-morning hours.

DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough digging southeastward across the
Midwest this morning will maintain a regional threat of heavy
showers and thunderstorms. The energy aloft and associated jet
dynamics will continue to interact with a broader warm air
advection pattern out ahead of it as southwest flow overruns a
frontal boundary that extends across the middle MS Valley. MUCAPE
values along and just north of the boundary have risen to as much
as 500 to 1000 J/kg, and with isentropic ascent established, there
should continue to be a focus for bands of elevated convection.

Given PWs of 1.75+ inches and the modest uptick in instability,
some of the rainfall rates will continue to be capable of reaching
1 to 2 inches/hour. The latest RAP guidance depicts some
increasing shear parameters over the next few hours and this will
tend to yield some relatively stronger and more organized updrafts
that will promote some of these heavier rainfall rates.

The 00Z/06Z HREF guidance suggests a sufficient level of
orientation of the convection to the deeper layer mean steering
flow such that some localized training of these bands of
convection may occur going through the mid-morning hours. This may
allow for some rainfall totals to reach 3 to 4 inches with
isolated heavier amounts. The antecedent conditions again are
generally on the dry side, but there may be enough short-term
rainfall to support a few instances of flash flooding and
especially if any of the heavier rains can impact some of the more
urbanized locations.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4r6A4U_hXFnvjAyf-AwEVBpUSiQTfwZCpEHbEVG3ST7wa2ygn-xumLu1ePXs5GnKAjJX=
ogNX3dWzX54qXqvrCv88JXA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...LSX...OAX...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   41139464 41039320 40679224 40179159 39439127=20
            38809146 38689215 38699308 39129430 39919510=20
            40709532=20

=3D =3D =3D
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