Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 12 2024 08:47:47

ACUS48 KWNS 120847
SWOD48
SPC AC 120845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that another
weak mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the
northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Thursday. Some
severe potential may accompany this feature, but forecast deep-layer
shear should tend to remain rather marginal. Differences also exist
in where a greater severe threat may develop across these regions,
so a 15% severe area has not been included. Gradual amplification of
the upper pattern should occur late this week into the upcoming
weekend, with a trough/low developing over the eastern Pacific,
ridging building over much of the western states into the
Rockies/Plains, and troughing over the East. This pattern may
support isolated severe potential each day from Day 5/Friday through
early next week across parts of the central/eastern CONUS, generally
along/south of a weak front and in a northwesterly mid-level flow
regime between the upper ridge and eastern states upper trough.
However, predictability of potential MCS corridors and greater
severe potential remain low at this extended time frame.

...Gleason.. 08/12/2024

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