Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Aug 12 2024 07:30:59 ACUS03 KWNS 120730 SWODY3 SPC AC 120730 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. ....Northern/Central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley... Generally elevated convection driven largely by low-level warm advection may be ongoing Wednesday morning from parts of the Dakotas southeastward to the Ozarks vicinity. This activity should weaken through the day as it spreads eastward into a less unstable airmass. In its wake, a fairly broad warm sector is forecast to be in place along/east of a weak lee surface trough and front extending north to south over much of the northern/central High Plains. Greater low-level moisture, with potentially upper 60s to mid 70s surface dewpoints, should be in place over portions of NE/KS into the mid MO Valley by late Wednesday afternoon. Daytime heating of this moist low-level airmass should encourage moderate to perhaps strong instability across this area. Large-scale forcing for ascent should remain fairly modest, as multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations emanate from the northern/central Rockies into the adjacent Plains through the period. Even though deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong, at least isolated robust thunderstorms with associated hail/wind threat appear possible across much of the northern/central Plains as these features move east-northeastward over the developing warm sector through the day. Some guidance shows potential for one or more clusters to develop/consolidate across parts of central/eastern NE/KS and vicinity Wednesday afternoon and evening. Greater instability and steeper low-level lapse rates should be in place across this area, which would potentially support more robust updrafts and cold pool consolidation with a somewhat better chance for severe/damaging winds. However, confidence in this scenario occurring is relatively low given weak forcing aloft. Have therefore opted to include a broad Marginal Risk for now across the northern/central Plains into the mid MO Valley. ...Gleason.. 08/12/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .