Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Aug 12 2024 05:44:27 ACUS01 KWNS 120544 SWODY1 SPC AC 120542 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS REGION AND COASTAL CAROLINAS... ....SUMMARY... A few marginally severe gusts are possible with convection across portions of the CONUS this afternoon. However, organized severe is not currently anticipated. ....Rockies/Central High Plains Region... Upper anticyclone is expected to refocus itself over north TX by the end of the period as west coast troughing helps to nudge the Rockies ridge east a bit. Latest model guidance suggests several weak disturbances will eject across the Great Basin toward the central Rockies, and these features should encourage convection during the afternoon/evening. While mid-level flow is not forecast to be particularly strong, boundary-layer heating across the interior Rockies region will contribute to adequate buoyancy for robust convection. Forecast soundings across UT into eastern ID favor gusty winds with afternoon/evening convection as low-level lapse rates will be steep. Downstream along the CO Front Range, southeasterly low-level flow will maintain upslope convergence into the higher terrain and scattered thunderstorms will develop as convective temperatures are breached, likely by 21-22z. This activity will spread/propagate toward the High Plains aided by 25kt 500mb westerly flow. LLJ should increase across the TX Panhandle into southwest KS during the evening and this will encourage eastward propagation across the central High Plains during the overnight hours. ....Coastal Carolinas... Southern influence of eastern US trough will affect the Carolinas later today. Models suggest 20-30kt mid-level flow will extend across a frontal zone that will be draped over coastal regions. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. Marginally severe gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. ...Darrow/Wendt.. 08/12/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .