Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Aug 12 2024 04:31:54 AWUS01 KWNH 120431 FFGMPD MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-121030- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0866 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1230 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Areas affected...North-Central to Northeast OK...Southeast KS Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 120430Z - 121030Z SUMMARY...Scattered instances of flash flooding will become likely overnight from developing and expanding areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms that will be capable of training over the same area. DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with dual-pol radar shows an area of convection developing and expanding in coverage across areas of northern OK which should grow gradually upscale overnight and downstream into areas of northeast OK and parts of southeast KS. The activity is being facilitated by low-amplitude shortwave energy advancing east across the central Plains which is interacting with the nose of a gradually strengthening southerly low-level jet. This low-level jet energy is also overrunning a wavy stationary front situated over portions of the Red River Valley. The increase in warm air advection/isentropic ascent along with strengthening moisture and instability transport should yield a notable expansion in convection over the next several hours. In fact, the low-level jet is forecast by the latest RAP guidance to reach 40 to 50 kts in the 06Z to 09Z time frame and the resulting moisture convergence coupled with MUCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg should yield rainfall rates that reach 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour. There has been significant disagreement among several of the recent hires model solutions on the evolution of the convective threat overnight, but the best low-level speed convergence, moisture transport, and overlap of instability and isentropic ascent would favor the heaviest rainfall potential generally over northeast OK and late tonight and toward dawn. Cell-training and some backbuilding of convection will become a notable concern in time as the convection becomes aligned with the deeper layer westerly flow. A veering of the low-level jet overnight will further facilitate this. Given the set-up, some rainfall amounts by dawn may reach 3 to 6 inches. This will likely result in areas of flash flooding, and the urban corridors inclusive of Tulsa and Bartlesville in particular may be at risk for locally significant impacts. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4vPP8lD3QGK56ARXzR0u7kxPyEs-tc9f16a3xczxe965wolDzJjSN3frUUhggtASfsaU= 6A7uY6TRew_SgemF7O6XiWk$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...SGF...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 37529642 37209528 36579450 35769419 35179446=20 35029509 35219583 35939684 36539789 37059798=20 37439743=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .