Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Aug 12 2024 03:26:23 AWUS01 KWNH 120326 FFGMPD MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-120925- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0865 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1124 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Areas affected...Northeast KS into Northwest and West-Central MO Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 120325Z - 120925Z SUMMARY...Developing and expanding areas of locally training showers and thunderstorms overnight will pose a threat for isolated instances of flash flooding. DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough digging southeastward across the northern Plains will be approaching the Lower MO Valley overnight and will be gradually interacting with a quasi-stationary front for developing and expanding areas of showers and thunderstorms. Modest south-southwest flow overrunning the boundary ahead of the shortwave energy will facilitate largely an elevated axis of convection, and already the latest radar imagery shows a band of locally heavy showers and thunderstorms impacting the western and southern suburbs of the Kansas City metropolitan area. MUCAPE parameters are rather modest right now across northeast KS and into west-central MO with values near 500 J/kg, but as some nocturnal enhancement/strengthening of the low-level flow occurs over the front, there should be the transport of somewhat greater instability. This greater instability along with stronger isentropic ascent and arrival of upstream shortwave forcing should promote a further expansion of convection over the next several hours which will include some cell-training concerns. The PWs are on the order of 1.75+ inches and will be conducive in supporting heavy rainfall rates with the stronger storms that may reach as high as 1.5 to 2 inches/hour. There is some meaningful spread in the 00Z HREF guidance with where the heaviest rainfall potential will set up, but the HREF consensus generally suggests areas of northwest to west-central MO will be at greatest risk with some 3 to 4+ inch rainfall amounts possible by late tonight. The antecedent conditions are generally quite dry across the region and so any flash flood threat is expected to be isolated in nature with the more urbanized locations at greatest risk for impacts. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7kkkvWLjgntPEs22m4fl-TF__8Qju30XpFkSD89Cx8yZTipdWq-OMErN5CR1rrlh1rc3= ECcWJeHY9zsvLQGb_B6YVjY$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...LSX...OAX...SGF...TOP... ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 40599469 40429384 39689289 38969243 38349283=20 38319376 38579456 38869507 39299558 39699580=20 40369562=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .