Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 12 2024 00:50:54

ACUS01 KWNS 120050
SWODY1
SPC AC 120049

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of the
central High Plains early this evening. Other storms with strong
wind gusts may affect parts of Utah, northern Arizona, and western
Colorado for the next few hours.

....01z Update...

Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave
trough digging southeast across the High Plains of SD/NE. This
feature is forecast to approach the mid MO Valley by sunrise.
Scattered convection developed in response to the short wave across
SD/NE with more isolated activity noted into eastern CO. Over the
last hour or so, the primary corridor of robust updrafts is focusing
along an instability axis that extends from western NE into western
KS. These storms will continue to propagate south along this zone of
stronger buoyancy, especially as northwesterly flow dominates the
High Plains in the wake of the short wave. Boundary-layer airmass
over much of the lower central Plains is not particularly unstable
so convection is expected to weaken as it advances atop this cooler,
more stable air. For the next few hours hail/wind could accompany
the storms from north of LBF to south of GLD.

Gusty winds may also be noted with convection across the Great Basin
into western CO for the next few hours. Numerous
showers/thunderstorms have developed across southern UT/northern AZ
into western CO. 00z sounding from GJT exhibits around 400 J/kg
MLCAPE with steep 0-3km lapse rates. After sunset low-levels should
cool and the prospects for severe gusts should diminish.

...Darrow.. 08/12/2024

$$

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