Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 12 2024 00:30:21

AWUS01 KWNH 120030
FFGMPD
COZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-120600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0864
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
823 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Areas affected...Southern UT, northern AZ, and western CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 120021Z - 120600Z

SUMMARY...Widespread shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected
to continue into the evening.  Repeating storms are expected to
produce heavy accumulations and flash flooding, especially across
portions of southern Utah.

DISCUSSION...Increasing southerly flow ahead of a low-to-mid
level, slowly advancing shortwave trough continues to draw monsoon
moisture from the Southwest into southern Utah.  The latest
mesoanalysis shows PWs of 1-1.25 inches now covering much of
southern Utah.  With sufficient instability in place as well
MLCAPEs 500-1000 J/kg), this moisture is being drawn into a region
of enhanced lift supported in part by right-entrance region upper
jet forcing, producing widespread storm coverage.  MRMS estimates
indicate instaneous rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr in some of the
stronger storms.  Radar trends show storms begining train from the
Nevada-Utah border near the Snake Range across southern Utah.=20
Individual storms are expected to remain fairly progressive,
supported 10-20 kt 0-6km AGL winds.  While the leading storms
continue to spread across western Colorado over the next few
hours, several of the hi-res guidance members present a good
signal for training/back-building storms to continue across
portions of southern Utah, resulting in heavy accumulations and
likely flash flooding.  For the 6-hour period ending at 06Z,
neighborhood probabilities from the 18Z HREF indicate that
accumulations of 3 inches or more likely around the Pavant Range
and the Tushar Mountains in southern Utah.  For areas away from
this region where lighter accumulations are expected, flash
flooding will still remain a concern as rates of 1-2 in/hr can be
expected within some of the stronger storms.

Further to south, weak steering flow will continue to support
slow-moving storms, with additional heavy rainfall and flash
flooding across portions northern Arizona.  HREF guidance
indicates that additional accumulations of 0.5 inch or more are
likely from the Grand Canyon Country northward.

Pereira

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!45Rs7i64Qyn-ux8nfaVhDpiJ1S3YsXdYHy7a6aRp8FqoVTXicBaz7Ev9P1958qf0khAk=
-al6UQNINNDnVnIWB0HgJnA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...LKN...PUB...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...CNRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39811162 39361065 39121009 39480909 39430744=20
            38980653 38050714 37680843 37380913 36791086=20
            36281183 35411211 35121279 35251300 35861361=20
            36721406 38321442 39231375 39761291=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.