Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 11 2024 22:36:48

AWUS01 KWNH 112236
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-120235-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0863
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
635 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Areas affected...SC and eastern NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 112235Z - 120235Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving storms, with additional heavy rainfall and
flash flooding possible into the early evening.

DISCUSSION...The setup remains similar to yesterday, with
slow-moving storms continuing to drift along a stalled, wavy
frontal boundary, fueled by deep moisture that remains in place
across the region.  Replenished by southwesterly low level inflow,
PWs remain above 2 inches across the eastern Carolinas, while
MLCAPEs are around 2000-3000 J/kg.  Slow storm movement, along
with training and merging cells is supporting instantaneous
rainfall rates of over 2 in/hr in some locations.  Near-term
guidance shows moisture and instability should remain favorable
for pockets of heavy rainfall into the early evening, while
steering flow remains relatively weak.  Similar to yesterday, the
synoptic forcing is weak and areal storm coverage is expected to
decrease with the loss of daytime heating.  However, the RAP does
indicate some subtle upper jet forcing, which may help some storms
continue beyond sunset.  While widespread additional heavy amounts
are not expected, neighborhood probabilities from the 18Z HREF
indicate a good chance for localized accumulations of 1-2 inches
within the highlighted area over the next few hours, with the
highest probabilities centered over southeastern North Carolina
and northeastern South Carolina.  Given the saturated soils,
expect any additional heavy amounts to produce runoff concerns.=20=20=20

Pereira

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-o9aW7fqgxMovqT_PZUF51z7BaXwF4xOOe7l7j3EXvHkLe0yj4lj-bmHN_1NLDEzSnm2=
_rUrdZG4WLCiRX65rbTJrzI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...CHS...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35987680 35877577 34857704 34157846 33147965=20
            32338049 32468125 33608072 34138253 34668289=20
            34998211 34768015 35567826=20

=3D =3D =3D
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