Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Aug 11 2024 17:29:49 ACUS02 KWNS 111729 SWODY2 SPC AC 111728 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ....SUMMARY... The potential for organized severe thunderstorms on Monday appears generally low across the contiguous United States. ....Synopsis... A upper-level trough will advance off the East Coast on Monday while the upper-level ridge starts to build across the High Plains. A mid-level shortwave trough off the California coast Monday morning will approach the Great Basin by the evening and may result in a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across Utah. Additionally, convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough will move across the Rockies on Monday with a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible. ....Central High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop on the higher terrain across the central/southern Rockies on Monday afternoon and move into the central Plains. Weak to moderate instability and weak to moderate shear are forecast across the region which may result in a few isolated strong to severe storms. These storms will develop in a region of overall rising heights aloft. However, most guidance indicates a convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, likely emanating from the convection near the AZ/Mexico border this morning, will result in mesoscale ascent across Colorado and aid in storm development. ....Great Basin... Moderate instability will develop across the Great Basin on Monday as monsoon moisture streams north ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon as the inhibition erodes. Effective shear is forecast to be relatively weak (15 to 20 knots) which may limit storm organization. There is considerable uncertainty with the thermodynamic profile forecast from the RAP and NAM across western Utah with the NAM showing less instability and deeper mixing with the RAP showing greater instability and at less mixed boundary layer (thus resulting in greater instability). Regardless of the scenario, there will be a threat for severe wind gusts given the at least moderately unstable environment with height falls across the region during the afternoon. ....Eastern North Carolina... Storms are forecast to develop along a cold front as it moves across North Carolina Monday afternoon. A very moist airmass will be in place with mid-70s dewpoints. Despite a focused mechanism for storms and moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE), expect the threat for organized severe weather to remain low given the weak effective shear (~25 knots) and weak mid-level lapse rates (<6 C/km). ...Bentley.. 08/11/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .