Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Aug 11 2024 16:26:42 AWUS01 KWNH 111626 FFGMPD NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-112225- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0861 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1225 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Areas affected...eastern GA into SC and the coastal Plain of NC Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 111625Z - 112225Z SUMMARY...Thunderstorms over the Coastal Plain of NC/SC into eastern GA are likely to result in scattered areas of flash flooding. Rainfall rates of 1 to 1.5 inches in 15 minutes can be expected. DISCUSSION...Visible imagery at 16Z showed expanding cumulus along the sea breeze extending from near CHS to the Outer Banks along with the early onset of diurnal thunderstorms. The airmass across the region remained very moist with 1.9 to 2.2 inch precipitable water values noted on the CHS and MHX 12Z soundings. 850-300 mb mean layer winds were near 5 kt at CHS and closer to 15 kt at MHX from the WSW and while there was a greater degree of dry mid-level air noted in sounding data compared to yesterday, very moist low levels with surface dewpoints in the upper 70s to about 80 F will be supportive of intense rainfall rates. Thunderstorms will likely increase in coverage along the sea breeze boundary through 18Z with additional development occurring inland, closer to a slow moving front analyzed NE to SW across the Southeast into the remainder of the afternoon. A lack of wind shear aloft should limit cell organization, but cell mergers and outflow interactions will result in brief upticks in cell intensity. Greater thunderstorm coverage may occur across NC due to increased lift along the base of an eastward moving upper level trough currently located over the Upper Ohio Valley. Rainfall rates of 1 to 3 in/hr are expected, but with 1 to 1.5 inch totals in 15 minutes driving a flash flood threat atop soils that are saturated from recent heavy rain. 7-day rainfall totals across the Coastal Plain are in excess of 10 inches from southern NC through much of SC. High short term rainfall rates along with storm totals of 2 to 4 inches, locally higher, are expected to support scattered areas of flash flooding through the afternoon and early evening. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5gPLqYYy3KkBRH3UNEazDH6heuX3y3ZrepJxKc6UFyZ2gfDHxy7c8HR9wrO2SaGGtUKA= kgnIWyONlkP18bqpI_Exp9o$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...CHS...FFC...ILM...MHX...RAH... ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36487584 35837537 34897564 33757759 32637931=20 31848069 32188159 33278237 34158179 34867985=20 35667797 36417675=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .