Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 11 2024 16:12:51

ACUS01 KWNS 111612
SWODY1
SPC AC 111611

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Valid 111630Z - 121200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS....

....SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
central High Plains this afternoon into the early evening.  Other
storms with strong wind gusts may affect parts of Utah, northern
Arizona, and western Colorado.

....High Plains...
Morning water vapor loops show a shortwave trough and associated
mid-level speed max moving across WY.  This feature and its
associated lift will move into the High Plains this afternoon,
promoting widely scattered thunderstorm development.  Forecast
soundings from southwest SD southward into western NE/KS show steep
mid-level lapse rates, considerable deep layer shear, and pockets of
MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg.  This will be sufficient for supercell
structures capable of large hail and eventually damaging winds
during the late afternoon and evening.

....Great Basin...
Ample mid-level moisture is present today across much of southern
UT, northern AZ, and western CO.  Strong heating should lead to
scattered afternoon thunderstorms throughout the region.  Steep
low/mid level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will
pose a risk of damaging winds in the strongest cores.

...Hart/Weinman.. 08/11/2024

$$

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