Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Aug 11 2024 12:43:51 ACUS01 KWNS 111243 SWODY1 SPC AC 111242 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central High Plains this afternoon into the early evening. ....Central High Plains to Black Hills... Water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough moving east across southern MT/WY this morning. This upper feature is forecast to reach the Black Hills by early to mid afternoon and subsequently move into the IA/MO vicinity by early Monday morning. At the surface, dominant high pressure will hold across the mid MS Valley such that southeasterly low-level trajectories will be maintained across the central High Plains. Morning raob data over the lower MO Valley into eastern NE/KS sampled a relatively cool/stable continental airmass. Appreciable destabilization will occur in the vicinity of a lee trough where stronger heating is forecast today. Some isolated thunderstorms will likely shift eastward from MT/WY into the SD/NE Panhandle vicinity by early afternoon with additional storm development likely as stronger large-scale ascent impinges on the instability axis over the High Plains. Forecast soundings show long, straight hodographs which will promote supercellular organization with the stronger updrafts. Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible from the Black Hills southward into eastern CO/northwest KS. Large hail and severe gusts will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms before this activity moves east and/or weakens by mid evening related to the loss of heating. ....Raton Mesa east into the TX Panhandle and western OK... A reservoir of greater moisture/buoyancy will exist with east extent as a modifying outflow boundary becomes draped across the region this afternoon in wake of morning storms over central OK. An MCV noted in radar imagery this morning will move east across northern OK through the early afternoon with implied subsidence in its wake. Little in the way of large-scale forcing for ascent will contribute to suppressing convective development through mid afternoon. However, heating over the Raton Mesa and TX Panhandle may foster isolated storms late this afternoon into the early evening. More uncertain is if a couple of storms can develop farther east into OK where large buoyancy (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE) is forecast with a weak cap. Model guidance varies considerably (as expected with a wide array of potential solutions) but mesoscale trends will be monitored for the possible inclusion of low-severe probabilities if uncertainty decreases. ...Smith/Jewell.. 08/11/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .