Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Aug 11 2024 07:29:15 ACUS03 KWNS 110729 SWODY3 SPC AC 110728 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday across parts of the northern/central High Plains. ....Northern/Central High Plains... Upper ridging should remain prevalent over much of the Plains on Tuesday, while a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to develop northeastward from the interior Pacific Northwest across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Modest low-level mass response ahead of this shortwave trough should encourage the development/sharpening of a weak surface low and associated lee trough extending southward along much of the length of the northern/central High Plains. Some northward advance of low-level moisture is expected across these areas, along and east of the lee trough. Steepened mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating of this moistening airmass should support moderate instability developing by late Tuesday afternoon. Although mid-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong in association with the mid-level shortwave trough, gradual veering and modest strengthening of the wind field with height through mid/upper levels should foster sufficient deep-layer shear for some thunderstorm organization. An isolated threat for hail and severe winds should exist with any robust cores that can develop along the length of the lee trough and subsequently spread eastward Tuesday afternoon through evening. Have therefore included a fairly broad Marginal Risk across parts of the northern/central High Plains to account for this potential. ....Carolinas... As a mid/upper-level trough persists over the eastern states, some enhancement to west-northwesterly winds is forecast across parts of the OH/TN Valleys into the Carolinas and Southeast on Tuesday. While deep-layer shear appears conditionally supportive of organized convection, poor lapse rates and limited instability may tend to hinder more robust thunderstorms from developing across SC and vicinity Tuesday afternoon. Still, occasional strong/gusty winds appear possible, but the overall severe threat currently appears too limited to include any probabilities. ...Gleason.. 08/11/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .