Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 11 2024 00:34:13

ACUS01 KWNS 110034
SWODY1
SPC AC 110032

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and
perhaps hail, remain possible this evening over parts of the
Intermountain West and into the High Plains.

....01z Update...

Mid-level short-wave trough is advancing east across the northern
intermountain region early this evening. This feature is beginning
to flatten the ridge over western WY and scattered convection has
responded downstream where boundary-layer heating is maximized. 00z
sounding from SLC exhibits near dry adiabatic lapse rate in the
lowest 4km, and modest deep-layer shear; although, PW values are not
particularly high with values around one inch. Latest diagnostic
data suggests pockets of MLCAPE around 500 J/kg extend from southern
MT into eastern CO where considerably more buoyancy exists,
especially across southeast CO into the northern TX Panhandle.
Several gusts have exceeded 50kt with convection late this afternoon
and this remains the primary concern for the next several hours.
After sunset, boundary-layer cooling should hinder convective gusts
as 0-3km lapse rates weaken.

...Darrow.. 08/11/2024

$$

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